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xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 20 scorelines according to expected goals

We round up the Premier League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG (expected goals) scoreline, an Infogol fairness rating and noteworthy data points.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Tottenham 0-2 Arsenal
Infogol xG: 1.64-2.31
Fairness rating: 70.01%
Scorers: Hugo Lloris OG 14′, Martin Odegaard 36′
Arsenal extended their lead at the top of the Premier League to eight points with a 2-0 win over rivals Tottenham in the north London derby.

It was their first away win against Spurs since 2014 – captained by Mikel Arteta that day – sealed with two first-half strikes with the Gunners impressively in cruise control.

The opener saw Hugo Lloris clumsily spill Bukayo Saka’s cross into the goal while Martin Odegaard doubled their advantage by sliding an impressive effort past the Frenchman from 25 yards.

Aaron Ramsdale made some big saves at the other end to deny Heung-min Son (0.32), Harry Kane (0.36) and in the second half when he got a crucial toe to Ryan Sessegnon’s effort (0.24).

The Gunners boast the best away record in the league, with eight wins and a draw from 10, losing only to Manchester United. They have scored 20 goals (18.4 xGF) and conceded just six (10.3 xGF).

Next up, Man United at home on Sunday. A big test with Erik ten Hag’s side quietly surging up the table and into potential title contention.

Graham Potter and Chelsea got back to winning ways with a 1-0 scoreline v Crystal Palace at Stamford Bridge.

Kai Havertz’ second-half header (0.13 xG) was the difference, provided by Hakim Ziyech, as the Blues created more quality chances on the day, registering other significant efforts via Havertz (0.52 + 0.32), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.31) & Lewis Hall (0.26).

Of Chelsea’s total xG of 2.09 xG, German attacker Havertz contributed 1.1 (53%).

Patrick Vieira’s Eagles had 10 efforts at the other end, with just two of them exceeding 0.10 xG – Tyrick Mitchell (0.58) & Jeffrey Schlupp (0.11).

Newcastle 1-0 Fulham
Infogol xG: 1.90-0.30
Fairness rating: 86.21%
Scorers: Alexander Isak 89′
Second-half drama saw Fulham miss a penalty before Newcastle then sealed a late winner through Alexander Isak to go back up to third in the Premier League table.

In fact, the Cottagers *technically* did not miss a penalty, as the spot kick got chalked off. That’s because Aleksandar Mitrovic stepped up to take the set piece against his former club, but upon striking the ball he slipped and kicked it into his standing foot as it then deflected past Nick Pope.

It was ruled out by referee Robert Jones, with a free-kick given in the home side’s favour, hence why this does not contribute to Fulham’s xG total.

With the clock ticking and Eddie Howe’s side heading for a third successive league 0-0, Sweden forward Isak was there to tap home from close range (0.47) after Callum Wilson’s inviting cross.

The hosts had 20 attempts in total, just four of which were rated at more than 0.10 xG.

Marco Silva’s Fulham, meanwhile, had little chance creation at the other end – with efforts at just 0.05 + 0.05 + 0.12 + 0.08.

Brighton 3-0 Liverpool
Infogol xG: 2.03 – 1.11
Fairness rating: 71.44
Scorers: March 47′, 53′, Welbeck 82′
Solly March celebrates a goal against Liverpool
Brighton moved to within a point of the top-six in the Premier League table after a memorable 3-0 victory over Liverpool at the Amex.

Solly March’s brace early into the second-half put the Seagulls in complete control, before substitute Danny Welbeck made it certain with a goal in the final ten minutes.

It means that Brighton have scored nine goals across their last three Premier League contests – that coming from a total of 5.95 xG.

Including the FA Cup win over Middlesbrough, it’s 14 goals across the last four in all competitions. A remarkable return for a side charging towards the European places.

March’s brace took his return across the last four games to four goals – that all coming from a total of ten shots and 1.10 xG.

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